India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Within the three regions of Europe, the study shows remarkable constancy across the 10 features of flourishing.
Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman has presented a forward-looking Budget, reinforcing the government's commitment to 'Reform, Perform, and Transform'.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
'War is not an answer. War is not a solution.' 'Deterrence is a solution. We should have the stick with us with which we can beat Pakistan.'
The Reserve Bank should focus on making liquidity easier rather than cutting rates if the intent is to drive growth, Axis Bank's chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Tuesday. Mishra, who is also a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM, said the rate cut announced earlier this month or even the subsequent ones if they were to come will not end up increasing borrowings as the scarce liquidity will hamper transmission.
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato surged over 7 per cent. Maruti, ITC Hotels, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Titan and IndusInd Bank were among the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
In a continued push to spiritual tourism, there will be a focus on destinations related to the life and times of Lord Buddha.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'If our Budget allows, we may implement both measures -- making income up to Rs 10 lakh tax-free and introducing a 25 per cent slab for income between Rs 15 lakh and Rs 20 lakh.'
Trump may temper his approach from time to time, but to think that he will change his basic philosophy is delusional, asserts T T Ram Mohan.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
Neither the BJP, nor the Congress before it, made any manifesto commitments on defence spending, even though allocations have plummeted from 4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the late 1980s to less than 2 per cent today, points out Ajai Shukla.
'Everyone confuses GDP to be a measure of output, when it is actually a measure of income.'
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
It will be interesting to see what shifts have been recorded in the last decade-and-a-half -- from the effects of demonetisation and Covid's second wave to the drop in fertility and increase in farm workers -- but we will only know this if and when the Census is conducted, points out Aakar Patel.
'But I don't think the government is in a great hurry to sign the BTA.'
The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.
'We face the risk of remaining a low-income country for a very long time unless something changes in the next few years.' 'Instead of constantly talking about becoming a developed economy, we need to start fixing the problems of the economy one by one.' 'There is so much potential, and we are squandering away the opportunity.'
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
I'...additional concessions, such as opening government procurement, reducing agricultural subsidies, weakening patent protections, and allowing unrestricted data flows -- demands India has resisted for decades.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
The gross GST collection rose 7.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1.77 lakh crore in December. The Central GST collection stood at Rs 32,836 crore, State GST at Rs 40,499 crore, Integrated IGST at Rs 47,783 crore and Cess at Rs 11,471 crore, according to government data released on Wednesday.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
'He will be remembered more for what he did as finance minister -- as someone who functioned well when the political fallout was taken care of.'
'This debate is going on all over the world and everybody is saying that only GDP cannot estimate the real (economic) situation of a country.'
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